Corporate America’s earnings outlook darkens as slowdown fears rise

Corporate America's earnings outlook darkens as slowdown fears rise

Corporate America’s earnings outlook darkens as slowdown fears rise

Juno  原创编译

Q:You got some sort of downbeat prediction here about earnings for the full year. What’s that?
问:你对全年收益的预测有些悲观。为何这样说?

A: Yes, absolutely. So we definitely think there is downside risk to a shallow corporate profit recession here in the U.S. economy for three reasons.
答:是的,当然。因此,我们坚信美国经济中的企业利润有下滑的风险,原因有三。

One, you continue to see labor’s share of national income accelerate. And it’s likely to continue accelerating through the end of this economic cycle.
第一,劳动所得在国民收入中所占的比例持续上升。而且在这个经济周期结束后,它很可能会继续加速。

Two, you have a very, very tough annualized dollar comparison. So right now, we have the U.S. dollar, which obviously half of the S&P 500 revenues and EPS are roughly obtained from abroad. We have that up 9% year-over-year in Q1, and potentially up 6%,7% year-over-year in Q2.So that’s obviously a headwind as well.
第二,目前美元年化比较非常非常艰难。所以现在,即使我们有美元,但很明显在标准普尔500指数的收入和每股收益中,有一半来自国外。第一季度同比增长9%。第二季度可能同比增长6% 或者7%,这显然也是逆风。

And then obviously, you have global growth continue to decelerate. So domestic economic growth is likely to continue to decelerate at least through Q3 of 2019. When you have Chinese economic growth hitting its nadir here in Q1 and European growth potentially teetering into recession.
很明显,全球经济增长速度持续放缓。因此,直到2019年第三季度,即中国经济增长在第一季度触底、欧洲经济增长疑陷入衰退时,美国国内经济增长才有可能回到正轨。

Q: Ok. But you’ve got a lot of people scratching their heads about this prediction for a shallow earnings recession.You know, when you see about results, so far they are pretty solid.
问:好的。但你对经济放缓的预测使得许多人心生焦虑,抓耳挠腮。你知道,当你看到结果,到目前为止,它们都是很稳定的。

Obviously, we’re not going to see the the double-digit gains that we saw last year. What quarter do you see things sort of start to crater in the earnings world?
显然,我们不会看到像去年那样两位数的增长。你认为从哪个季度开始收益会下降?

A: Well. So again, I liken this to Procter & Gamble raising their guidance today. You go back to this time of last year. You had Caterpillar beat and raise guidance, and only a month later, come back to revise their earnings estimates for the full year.
答:所以,我再次把这比作宝洁提高的引导。你回到去年的这个时候。卡特彼勒跑赢大盘并上调了业绩预期,而仅仅一个月后,它又回来修正了全年的盈利预期。

That’s something we can actually see. You’re going to see some of these key headwinds really all coalesce here in Q1, which we obviously won’t start to get there results till April.
这是目前我们可以看到的。你会看到一些关键的不利因素会在第一季度聚集在一起,我们显然要到4月份才会看到结果。

Q: Ok. So your outlook for GDP, it seems pretty downbeat. How related to that is it to the government shutdown?
问:好的。你对GDP的展望,看起来很悲观。这和政府停摆有什么关系?

A: None. None, absolutely. The government shutdown is having a very negligible impact on growth. What we’re seeing in the U.S. economy domestically is just a return to more normalized levels of growth off the difficult comparisons that we just sort of put up in 2018.
答:没有。绝对没有。政府停摆对经济增长的影响微乎其微。我们所看到的美国国内经济正在从2018年的比较中恢复到更正常的增长水平。

China has a myriad of structural headwinds that continue to weigh on growth, not the least of which is obviously these trade concerns in the U.S. But it’s far from trade. It’s obviously a myriad of things that we’ve been discussing with our clients. And then obviously, Europe potentially going into recession is obviously a key headwind as well.
中国有无数的结构性逆风,这些逆风持续给经济增长带来压力,其中最明显的是美国的这些贸易担忧,但它离贸易还很远。很明显,我们已经和客户讨论了诸多事情。显然,欧洲有可能陷入衰退,这显然也是一个关键的不利因素。

Q: What do you see are the biggest risks to the market right now?
问:你认为目前市场面临的最大风险是什么?

A: global growth decelerating, a potential shallow earnings recession are two pretty big things that I don’t think investors are pricing in at this level of S&P.
答:全球经济增长正在减速,潜在的轻微盈利衰退是我认为投资者在目前的标普水平上没有考虑到的两大风险。

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