人工智能如何提升我们的记忆，工作表现以及社交生活-Tom Gruber

TED 精选 2019-01-01

人工智能时代口译技术应用研究
王华树 | 国内首部聚焦口译技术应用和教学的著作
新书推荐


口笔译教育与评价国际论坛二号公告
在厦门大学百年校庆之际，邀您齐聚厦门、共襄盛举
论坛推荐

我们的机器能让我们变得多聪明？ Siri 的共同创造者Tom Gruber想要做的是〝人性化的人工智能〞，它会增强我们的能力并与我们合作，而不是与我们竞争或取代我们。他分享了他对未来的愿景，在未来，人工智能会协助我们在感知、创造力、认知功能上有超人般的表现——从大大增强我们的设计技巧，到协助我们记住我们所有阅读过的内容及见过的每个人。〝我们正在人工智能兴起的时代之中，〞Gruber说道。〝每当机器变得更聪明，我们也会变得更聪明。〞

00:01
I'm here to offer you a new way to think about my field, artificial intelligence. I think the purpose of AI is to empower humans with machine intelligence. And as machines get smarter, we get smarter. I call this "humanistic AI" -- artificial intelligence designed to meet human needs by collaborating and augmenting people. Now, today I'm happy to see that the idea of an intelligent assistant is mainstream. It's the well-accepted metaphor for the interface between humans and AI. And the one I helped create is called Siri.
今天来到这里，是想邀请大家从一个新的角度来看待我熟悉的领域：人工智能。我认为人工智能的目的，是要用机器智能来增强人类的能力。而随着机器变得更聪明，我们也会更聪明。我称这个为“人性化 AI”—— 通过与 AI 合作并强化人类的设计方式来满足人类的需求。如今，我很高兴能看到智能助理的这个想法能成为主流。这象征了人类与 AI 之间的互动已被广泛接受。而其中一个我协助创造的产品就是 Siri。

00:42
You know Siri. Siri is the thing that knows your intent and helps you do it for you, helps you get things done. But what you might not know is that we designed Siri as humanistic AI, to augment people with a conversational interface that made it possible for them to use mobile computing, regardless of who they were and their abilities.
各位都认识 Siri。 Siri 会知道你的意图，并协助你把一切搞定。但各位可能不知道，当初我们在设计 Siri 时，就把它定位在“人性化 AI ”，通过对话的方式来强化人类体验，让使用行动计算成为可能，不论他们是谁、能力如何，都可以使用。

01:06
Now for most of us, the impact of this technology is to make things a little bit easier to use. But for my friend Daniel, the impact of the AI in these systems is a life changer. You see, Daniel is a really social guy, and he's blind and quadriplegic, which makes it hard to use those devices that we all take for granted. The last time I was at his house, his brother said, "Hang on a second, Daniel's not ready. He's on the phone with a woman he met online." I'm like, "That's cool, how'd he do it?" Well, Daniel uses Siri to manage his own social life -- his email, text and phone -- without depending on his caregivers. This is kind of interesting, right? The irony here is great. Here's the man whose relationship with AI helps him have relationships with genuine human beings. And this is humanistic AI.
对我们大多数人而言，这项技术带来的影响是让东西更便于我们使用。但对我朋友Daniel而言，这些系统中的AI功能却改变了他的一生。 Daniel是个很爱社交的人，也是个四肢瘫痪的盲人，我们认为理所当然的设备，对他来说却很难用。上次我去他家，他哥哥说： “等等，Daniel还没准备好。他正在和网上认识的女生打电话。” 我说：“不错啊，他怎么办到的？” 事实上，Daniel用 Siri 来管理他自己的社交生活—— 他的电子邮件、短信、电话—— 不用依赖他的照料人。这挺有趣的，对吧？不过也相当讽刺。这个人与 AI 的关系协助他与真正的人类建立了关系。这就是人性化的人工智能。

02:07
Another example with life-changing consequences is diagnosing cancer. When a doctor suspects cancer, they take a sample and send it to a pathologist, who looks at it under a microscope. Now, pathologists look at hundreds of slides and millions of cells every day. So to support this task, some researchers made an AI classifier. Now, the classifier says, "Is this cancer or is this not cancer?" looking at the pictures. The classifier was pretty good, but not as good as the person, who got it right most of the time.
还有一个可以改变人生的例子，也就是癌症诊断。当医生怀疑你有癌症时，他们会先取样交给病理学家，病理学家再利用显微镜来看样本。病理学家每天要看数百片的载玻片及数百万个细胞。所以为了支援这项工作，有几位研究人员做出了一种人工智能分类器。现在，分类器已经会看着图片分辨： “这是不是癌症？” 分类器挺厉害的，但没有人类那么厉害，人类大部分都能判读正确。

02:46
But when they combine the ability of the machine and the human together, accuracy went to 99.5 percent. Adding that AI to a partnership eliminated 85 percent of the errors that the human pathologist would have made working alone. That's a lot of cancer that would have otherwise gone untreated. Now, for the curious, it turns out that the human was better at rejecting false positives, and the machine was better at recognizing those hard-to-spot cases. But the lesson here isn't about which agent is better at this image-classification task. Those things are changing every day. The lesson here is that by combining the abilities of the human and machine, it created a partnership that had superhuman performance. And that is humanistic AI.
但，当机器与人类的能力结合在一起时，正确率可以达到 99.5%。加上人工智能的协作，人类病理学家能减少个人判断时 85% 的错误。这其中很多的癌症患者，当初就是因误判而耽搁了治疗。人类因为好奇的原因，比较擅长判断假阳性案例，而机器则比较擅长判断难以辨别的案例。但我们学到的并不是谁在图像分类上比较厉害。那些东西每天都会变。这里我们学到的是，通过结合人类与机器的能力，其创造出的合作关系会有超人般的表现。而这就是人性化的人工智能。

03:42
Now let's look at another example with turbocharging performance. This is design. Now, let's say you're an engineer. You want to design a new frame for a drone. You get out your favorite software tools, CAD tools, and you enter the form and the materials, and then you analyze performance. That gives you one design. If you give those same tools to an AI, it can generate thousands of designs.
我们再举个例子，这方面的进步也是突飞猛进。那就是“设计”。假设你是个工程师，想要设计一个新的无人机骨架。你打开最爱的软件，电脑绘图辅助工具（CAD），输入了外形和材料，然后按下分析表现。它只会跑出一种设计方案。如果你把这些工具拿给 AI 使用，它会帮你跑出数千种设计。

04:10
This video by Autodesk is amazing. This is real stuff. So this transforms how we do design. The human engineer now says what the design should achieve, and the machine says, "Here's the possibilities." Now in her job, the engineer's job is to pick the one that best meets the goals of the design, which she knows as a human better than anyone else, using human judgment and expertise. In this case, the winning form looks kind of like something nature would have designed, minus a few million years of evolution and all that unnecessary fur.
这段Autodesk 的影片非常震撼。这是真实案例。这就改变了我们设计的方式。现在，人类工程师只要说出想要实现的设计，机器就会说： ”有这些可能性方案。” 现在，她作为工程师的工作，就是选出一种最符合目标的设计，这是她身为人类最擅长的，用的就是人类的判断和专业知识。在这案例中，脱颖而出的设计像是自然界设计出来的，但这样的设计，不需要几百万年的演化，也不需有那些皮毛。

04:48
Now let's see where this idea of humanistic AI might lead us if we follow it into the speculative beyond. What's a kind of augmentation that we would all like to have? Well, how about cognitive enhancement? Instead of asking, "How smart can we make our machines?" let's ask "How smart can our machines make us?" I mean, take memory for example. Memory is the foundation of human intelligence. But human memory is famously flawed. We're great at telling stories, but not getting the details right. And our memories -- they decay over time. I mean, like, where did the '60s go, and can I go there, too?
我们现在来想想，如果我们跟着人性化 AI 走，它会把我们带到哪些意想不到的境界？我们想要实现哪些方面的强化？认知强化如何？别再问： “我们能把机器做到多聪明？” 而是要改问： “我们的机器能把我们变得多聪明？” 举个例子，记忆。记忆是人类智能的基础。但人类的记忆力是出名的差。我们很会说故事，但无法保证细节都是准确的。我们的记忆——会随时间衰退。比如，六十年代去哪了？我也能去那儿吗？

05:36
But what if you could have a memory that was as good as computer memory, and was about your life? What if you could remember every person you ever met, how to pronounce their name, their family details, their favorite sports, the last conversation you had with them? If you had this memory all your life, you could have the AI look at all the interactions you had with people over time and help you reflect on the long arc of your relationships. What if you could have the AI read everything you've ever read and listen to every song you've ever heard? From the tiniest clue, it could help you retrieve anything you've ever seen or heard before. Imagine what that would do for the ability to make new connections and form new ideas.
但如果你能拥有和电脑一样好的记忆力，而且这些记忆与你的人生有关，那会如何呢？如果你能记得你见过的每一个人，叫得出每一个人的名字，家庭状况的细节，他们最爱的运动，你和他们上次的对话，那会如何呢？如果你一生都有这样的记忆，你就可以让人工智能去看看你过去与人们的所有互动，并协助你反思你的人际关系。如果我们能让人工智能去阅读所有你阅读过的东西，去听你听过的每首歌，会如何呢？从最微小的线索，它就能协助你找回你以前看过或听过的任何东西。想像一下，这对于建立新连结以及产生新点子的能力会有什么影响。

06:26
And what about our bodies? What if we could remember the consequences of every food we eat, every pill we take, every all-nighter we pull? We could do our own science on our own data about what makes us feel good and stay healthy. And imagine how this could revolutionize the way we manage allergies and chronic disease.
那么，我们的身体呢？如果我们能记得吃过的每样食物，每颗药物，记得每次熬夜的内容，那会如何？我们可以用自己的资料来做自己的科学，找出什么会让我们感觉很好并保持健康。想像一下，这会为我们管理过敏及慢性病带来怎样的革命。

06:52
I believe that AI will make personal memory enhancement a reality. I can't say when or what form factors are involved, but I think it's inevitable, because the very things that make AI successful today -- the availability of comprehensive data and the ability for machines to make sense of that data -- can be applied to the data of our lives. And those data are here today, available for all of us, because we lead digitally mediated lives, in mobile and online.
我相信，人工智能能够实现个人记忆的强化。我不知道何时或需要哪些机缘，但我认为它是一定会到来的，因为人工智能在当今够成功的原因就是这些—— 唾手可得的综合性数据，以及机器能从这些数据中理解出意义的能力—— 能够被应用到我们生活中的数据上。我们现今就已经能够取得那些数据了，因为我们可以直接用手机或上网的方式，将我们的生活与数字科技做连结。

07:31
In my view, a personal memory is a private memory. We get to choose what is and is not recalled and retained. It's absolutely essential that this be kept very secure.
依我所见，个人的记忆是私人的记忆。我们可以选择要或不要，回忆或保留哪些记忆。这种安全性绝对是有必要的。

07:45
Now for most of us, the impact of augmented personal memory will be a more improved mental gain, maybe, hopefully, a bit more social grace. But for the millions who suffer from Alzheimer's and dementia, the difference that augmented memory could make is a difference between a life of isolation and a life of dignity and connection.
对大部份人来说，增强个人记忆所产生的影响会是：可以获得心智上的成长，或是希望可以有更好的社交能力。但对于数百万受阿兹海默症及痴呆症折磨的人而言，增加记忆能造成的改变就是让那孤独的人生，变成有尊严，与生活保持连接的人生。

08:12
We are in the middle of a renaissance in artificial intelligence right now. I mean, in just the past few years, we're beginning to see solutions to AI problems that we have struggled with literally for decades: speech understanding, text understanding, image understanding. We have a choice in how we use this powerful technology. We can choose to use AI to automate and compete with us, or we can use AI to augment and collaborate with us, to overcome our cognitive limitations and to help us do what we want to do, only better. And as we discover new ways to give machines intelligence, we can distribute that intelligence to all of the AI assistants in the world, and therefore to every person, regardless of circumstance. And that is why, every time a machine gets smarter, we get smarter.
我们现在正处于人工智能繁荣发展的时期当中，仅仅在过去几年，我们就开始看到人工智能问题的解决方法，而这在过去数十年来，一直是无法解决的问题，比如：口语理解，文字理解，图像理解。我们可以选择要如何使用这强大的技术。我们可以选择用人工智能来做自动化的工作，并与我们竞争，或我们可以选择用人工智能来做增强化的工作，并与我们合作，来克服我们的认知限制，并协助我们去做我们想要做的事，而且做得更好。随着我们发掘出新的方式来将智能赋予机器，我们可以把那种智能移转到全世界所有的人工智能助理身上，且不论如何，都要确保每个人都能因此受惠。那就是为什么每次当机器变更得聪明，我们也会变得更睿智。

09:21
That is an AI worth spreading.
而这就是人工智能值得推广的原因。谢谢大家。