5项变革策略建立一个繁荣和可持续的世界 – Johan Rockstrom

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5项变革策略建立一个繁荣和可持续的世界 - Johan Rockstrom

这场演讲有关如何在不破坏地球的情况下建设一个强大未来。可持续发展专家约翰·罗克斯特伦首次介绍了地球-3模型——一种将联合国可持续发展目标与9个地球界限相结合的方法论；超过地球界限，地球的重要系统就会变得不稳定。观看演讲来了解五项转型政策，有助于我们实现包容和繁荣的世界发展，同时保持地球的稳定和弹性。

00:00
In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity. First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals, the collective, universal plan for humanity to eradicate hunger, [promote] good economic development and good health, within global environmental targets. Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations, we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement, all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius, aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.
2015年，我们看到了人类两大奇妙、充满希望的突破。首先是对“可持续发展目标”的采用，这是在全球环境目标范围内，根除饥饿、促进经济增长和提升健康水平的人类普世计划。第二，在经过21年的谈判后，我们通过了具有法律约束力的《巴黎协定》，旨在全球所有国家都将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，并以1.5摄氏度为目标。如今，3年过去了，我们仍在做鼓吹的表面功夫。

00:35
Now, I think it's time to step back one step and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed at the General Assembly three years ago. These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system. But there are underlying problems. We have inherent contradictions between these goals, where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others. Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth. If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources and burning fossil fuels, it will be impossible to reach Goal 13. Three years down the line, we simply must admit we're seeing limited action to really, really address this as an inclusive, collective, universal package.
现在，我认为是时候后退一步，并认识到世界领导人是否真正知道他们三年前在联合国大会上签署的协定。这些普世的，有抱负的，具变革意义的目标旨在稳定的地球系统上实现一个包容且繁荣的全人类。但也存在一些潜在问题。这些目标之间存在固有矛盾，存在牺牲一些目标来青睐其他目标的风险。例如，目标8 有关体面工作和经济增长。为了达到它，如果我们持续开采自然资源和燃烧化石燃料，就没可能达到目标13。三年下来，我们必须承认在这个包容的、集体的和普世的一揽子计划上的成就所见甚少。

01:25
Now, this requires us to step back one step. I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions: Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030? Are there actually inherent trade-offs that are not compatible with our current development paradigm? But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change? And is it really a people-planet agenda, really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals within the life-support systems on earth?
现在，需要我们后退一步。我觉得我们得问自己一些棘手的问题：我们有任何机会在2030年完成“可持续发展目标”吗？是否存在与当前发展模式不兼容的固有权衡？是否存在协同效应，让我们可以真正加速变革？真有一个“人类与地球”的议程，在地球维生系统中严肃对待这些有抱负的社会和经济目标吗？

01:58
Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize that we're facing global rising environmental risks; in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite to have good human well-being on earth. We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system, and the planetary boundary framework was introduced by the scientific community in 2009 to do exactly that. It has now been widely embraced across the world in policy, business and communities as a framework for sustainable development in the Anthropocene.
现在，全球人民开始认识到我们面临着全球不断增加的环境风险；事实上，一个稳定的行星人类幸福的先决条件。我们需要在稳定的地球系统上定义一个安全的运行空间， 2009年，科学界引入了地球界限正是基于这个目的。它作为人类世的可持续发展框架已经被全球各地的政策，商业和社区广泛接受。

02:31
This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes that regulate the stability of the earth system, providing a safe operating space, where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being and prosperity and equity. If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone; and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.
这张幻灯片展示了这个框架，其中有九个环境进程，他们调节地球系统的稳定性并提供一个安全的工作空间，届时，我们将有很大机会拥有良好的人类福祉，繁荣和公平。如果我们进入黄色区，我们就进入了一个危险的不稳定区；进入红色区，我们很有可能越过临界点，让我们不可逆转地失去地球系统为人类提供社会和经济福利的能力。

03:03
Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries, providing us a stable earth system for humanity. But we have to go beyond this and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals -- if we really want to seriously accomplish them -- must now occur within this safe operating space. We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.
现在，我们今天可以科学地量化这些边界，为我们人类提供稳定的地球系统。但我们需要超越这点并认识到“可持续发展目标”—— 如果真的想要严肃地实现它们—— 现在必须在这个安全的运行空间内进行。我们必须在地球界限内实现可持续发展目标。

03:26
But dear friends, not even this is enough. We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals is 12 years away. It's only a milestone. It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through and zoom ourselves towards transformations where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth, nine billion plus, within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.
但亲爱的朋友，这还不够。我们需要认识到“可持续发展目标” 离达成预期只有十二年。这只是一个里程杯而已。这是我们需要到达的靶心，我们继续加快向变革前进，这样我们才可以在2050年及以后，在稳定的地球系统中为地球上的90亿公民创造一个美好的未来。

03:50
This is a quest, and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it, we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model, the Earth-3 model, building on models that have been around for the last 50 years. And here it is. This is a fantastic piece of work. This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model; it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments. This is what turns us scientists on.
这是一个探索，为了真正去探索而不只是光说不练，我们聚集了科学界最好的思想者和建模家开始开发一套全新的复杂系统动态模型，地球-3模型，基于在已经存在50年的模型。就是这个。这真是一个了不起的工作。它有气候模型，生物圈模型，全球经济模型；它有算法，它就是一个神奇的成就。这就是科学家为之高潮的东西。

04:24
(Laughter)

04:25
I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work? And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you, but I'll make you disappointed. I cannot do that. In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you that this is the first time it's done. Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries. And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project economic development, resources use from water, food and energy, population growth, income per person, yet along these consistent and systemic pathways. So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
我的意思是，这是一件漂亮的作品。我很乐意花整个晚上带领大家了解它，但我恐怕要让你们失望了。我不能这样。事实上，我现在可以做的只是向你们保证这是前所未有的。没人尝试过真正结合分析 “可持续发展目标”和地球界限。我们能够找到趋同趋势，让我们对自己有信心，相信我们有能力预测经济发展，水资源，食物和能源资源的使用，人口增长和人均收入，并仍保持一致性和系统性。所以，首次我们有了一个机遇去真正探索在地球界限内取得可持续发展的未来。

05:14
Now, how do we do this? Well, look at this. Here, you have the data coming from the real world, calibrated from 1970-2015: 100,000 data points around the world, building on seven regions' ability, of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals. Now, one example of how we calibrated this, here you have [data] for Sustainable Development Goals on eradicating poverty, health, education and food. And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world, how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations in relation to GDP per capita, giving these universal convergent trends, which enabled us to create regressions that could make us able to do simulations into the future, all the way until 2050, showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.
那么，我们如何做到这点？看看这个。这里有来自真实世界 1970-2015年的校准数据：全球10万个数据点，发现7个区域有能力处理所有可持续发展目标。现在，举个我们如何校准的例子，这里有消除贫困、健康、教育和粮食可持续发展目标的数据。这里的气泡图是世界的七个区域，这些是至2015年的走势，基于我们对人均GDP的观察，给出了这些普遍的收敛趋势，我们可以由此创造回归模型使我们能够对未来进行模拟，直到2050年，展示了实现可持续发展目标的能力。

06:06
Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios, testing different possible futures: business as usual, global transformations, investment schemes in business, different governance options, policies, finance -- really, to explore what the future can look like in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs. And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us. And this will be the first time it's shown. It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.
现在，这让我们可以去模拟几个场景，测试不同可能的未来：一切如常，全球变革，商业的投资计划，不同的治理选择，政策，金融—— 真正地去探索未知的未来当我们拥有在地球界限内可持续发展的能力。结果，我可以告诉你们，十分惊人。这将是它第一次被展示。它甚至不应该在这个房间外被引用。

06:37
Now, it actually is presented along two axes. The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries. The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space. On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals; the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill. We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner, the safe and just world for the future. Now, the point you see there is 1980. We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space but not meeting so many of the SDGs. Here's the trend up until 2015. So this is the conventional world, which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs, lifting millions of people out of poverty, but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.
它其实是以两个坐标轴而展示的。 Y轴展示我们保持在地球界限内的能力。越高，我们离安全运行空间越近。 X轴是可持续发展目标；越向右代表我们满足更多可持续发展目标。我们都想要待在右上角，那是一个在未来的安全公正的世界。现在，你看到的点是1980年。那个时候我们处在一个安全运行的空间，但没能实现太多的可持续发展目标。这是2015年之前的趋势。这是传统世界，它实现了越来越多的可持续发展目标，让成千上万的人脱离了贫穷，但是以牺牲地球的安全运行空间为代价。

07:23
Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future. If we just move on as today, we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs, but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system. Now, what if we go faster on economic growth and really ally on one percent increase per year of income and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050? That would give us the following trajectory. We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments, but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet. But what if we really go harder? What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent across all sectors in society, from climate to our trade agreements? A harder scenario would take us a little bit better, but still, we're failing on the SDGs, and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.
这是一切如常的未来情景。如果我们继续像今天一样，我们能够实现一些可持续发展目标，但我们将会牺牲地球系统的稳定。现在，如果我们加快经济的增长并让每年的收入都有1%的增长，并在2050年让世界经济翻三倍会怎样？这就得到了下面的轨迹。我们可以再完成一些可持续发展目标，但仍然以破坏地球的稳定为代价。但如果我们真的更加努力呢？如果我们实现诺言的能力提高30%, 社会各处都能兑现那些气候或贸易协议？更努力的场景会让我们好一点，但仍然我们会失去一些可持续发展目标，而且也没能为人类实现一个安全的运行空间。

08:22
So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion, that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs and transgress planetary boundaries. We need some radical thinking. We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future, where we start thinking outside of the box. The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.
所以这让我们得出了一个非常令人失望的结论，即使选择未来不变，我们也会在可持续发展目标上失败，并超过地球界限。我们需要一些激进的想法。我们需要进入一个变革的、颠覆性的未来，我们要开始跳出思维定势。模型，参与和对话让我们能够找到五个可以把达成目标的变革政策。

08:50
The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade along the scientific pathway to Paris, doubling investments in renewable energy, creating a global energy democracy, allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.
第一个是朝《巴黎协议》努力，每十年减排一半，翻倍对可再生能源的投入，建立全球能源民主，让我们能实现几个可持续发展目标。

09:04
The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems, investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions that we already have available today.
第二个是向可持续食物系统的快速转变，每年投资1%用于可持续集约化并真正朝着实施与投资已有的解决方案迈进。

09:19
The third is really to shift our development paradigm and learn from many of the developing countries that have moved very fast. What if we could have an economic growth such as in China, while doing it within the environmental parameters of an ecological civilization?
这三个是改变我们的发展策略并向很多进展迅猛的发展中国家学习。如果我们有像中国那样的经济增长会怎样，同时这在生态文明的环境下进行？

09:35
Fourth, a redistribution of wealth. What if we could [agree] that the richest 10 percent could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum, of national incomes -- a drastic redistribution of wealth, reforming the ability of equity across regions?
第四，重新分配财富。如果我们能够同意最富的10% 不让自己积累财富的最大值超过40%的国家收入—— 大规模的财富再分配，改革各地间的平等能力，会如何？

09:51
And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health, access to work, contraception, investing largely in women across the world, allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality, economics and urban development.
还有最后，第五点，增加更多投入到教育，健康，就业机会，节育，加大对全球女性的投资，让我们可以实现性别，不平等，经济和城市发展这些可持续发展目标。

10:08
Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five -- we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey towards the safe and just operating space on earth. It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based, complex system dynamics model, we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations over the next 12 years and beyond that can take us up into the safe operating space and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals. This is actually quite uplifting, despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.
现在，如果我们在所有这五个目标上推动我们—— 我们试验了这个，它会给我们一段惊奇的超着安全和公正的地球运行空间前进的旅程。它告诉我们即便使用保守的，基于经验的复杂系统动力模型，现阶段我们仍可以想象得到未来12年和更久之后的变革，可以带我们进入安全运行空间并实现有抱负的社会和经济目标。这非常令人振奋，尽管事实上我们还没有沿着这个轨迹前进。

10:46
So, in summary: we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs, must draw a line and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises, and not only that, we're running the risks of future generations having an even tougher ability, because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points. In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth, where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities that could actually make life even more tough for billions of people on earth. This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.
所以，总而言之：我们现在，可持续发展目标的实施已经进行了三年，我们必须画一条线，得出的结论是我们并没有实现我们的承诺，而且不仅如此，我们还在冒着让后代更加艰难的风险，因为我们有可能把地球界限推向临界点。事实上，我们正面临温室地球的风险，我们逐渐瓦解并制造地缘政治的不稳定性，这会让地球上几十亿人的生活更加艰难。这些，老实说，真是让我害怕。

11:23
But that's also why I'm standing here tonight, because the window of success is still open. The earth system is still resilient. She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space. But we need radically different thinking. We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call but also an opportunity for transformative change, where we shift gears and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda within a safe operating space on earth. In other words, we can build a safe and just world. We just have to really, really get on with it. And let's do it. Thank you.
但这也是为什么我今晚站在这里，因为成功的窗口仍然打开着。地球系统仍然具有弹性。她仍能为我们提供生态系统的服务和功能，可以让我们转型至安全运行空间。但我们需要从根本改变思考方式。我们需要把这视作可怖的警钟，但也是一个变革的机会，在这我们可以换挡并开始思考在地球安全运行空间中将可持续发展目标视为一项变革议程。换句话说，我们可以构建一个安全和公正的世界。但我们得真正，真正开始行动。让我们去做吧，谢谢。