已经取得进展和有待实现的全球目标 – Michael Green

TED 精选 2018-12-25

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已经取得进展和有待实现的全球目标 - Michael Green

“我们如今生活的世界正在努力减少因饥饿、疟疾或腹泻而死去的人口数量。”经济学家迈克尔 · 格林如是说。为了帮助实现这一计划，联合国早在2015年就围绕着如健康、教育和平等重要因素提出了 17 项方针。在这场用数据佐证的演说中，格林分享了对每个国家已经所有进展的（或有待实现的）“可持续性发展目标”的分析——并针对我们将如何向着这些目标前进提出了新的想法。

00:00
In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise. A promise that over the next 15 years, the lives of billions of people are going to get better with no one left behind. That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals -- the SDGs. We're now three years in; a fifth of the way into the journey. The clock is ticking. If we offtrack now, it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals. So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot on where we are today, some projections on where we're heading and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.
2015 年，世界各国的领袖们做出了一个巨大的承诺—— 在接下来的 15 年里，全球数十亿人的生活将得到改善，没有人会掉队。那个承诺就是，“可持续性发展目标” （Sustainable Development Goals) —— 简称 SDGs。时间已经过去了3年；相当于整个旅程的五分之一。时间如白驹过隙，如果我们现在就偏离了既定轨道，那么实现目标就会变得越来越艰难。所以，今天我想让各位对于我们目前已经走到了哪一步有一个粗略的认识，并对我们未来的前进方向做出一个预测，同时也思考一下，有哪些地方需要做出调整。

00:45
Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated. I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.
这个可持续性发展目标的确不容易实现。我非常期待联合国能够达成。

00:52
How many goals? Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10. No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10. Seventeen goals. I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already. For the rest of us, here they are.
我们有多少个目标？也许尝试过并测试过的，有那么3个，7个或10个。不——还是让我们挑个比10大的质数吧。 17个目标。如果有些人已经记住了这些目标，那么恭喜你们。至于其他人，请看这里。

01:09
Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty to inclusive cities to sustainable fisheries; all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world. But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it. So how are we going to track progress? Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the quality of life of countries, ranging from the basic needs of survival -- food, water, shelter, safety -- through to the foundations of well-being -- education, information, health and the environment -- and opportunity -- rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.
十七个目标，从终结贫困，到提升城市的包容性，到发展可持续的渔业；这一切都是为了我们未来的世界所做的全面计划。但可惜的是，没有一个计划可以用于衡量它们。那么我们该如何追踪进展呢？别担心，今天我要展示的就是社会进步指数 (Social Progress Index)。它是用于衡量一个国家的生活质量的标准，范围从基本的生存需求—— 食物、水、住所、安全—— 一直到保证幸福生活的基础—— 教育、资讯、健康以及环境—— 还有机会-—— 权力、选择自由权、包容度，以及获得高等教育的机会。

01:53
Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs, but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts, and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data. We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources to measure these concepts. And also, what we can do because it's an index, is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs. Now, one caveat. The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life. We're not looking at whether this can be achieved within the planet's environmental limits. You will need other tools to do that.
社会进步指数看起来并不像可持续性发展目标，但根本来说，它是在衡量同样的概念，而社会进步指数有一个优势，就是我们有相关的数据。我们有 51 项指标，都来自可靠的信息来源，可以用来衡量这些概念。此外，因为它是一个指数，我们还可以把这些指标加起来得到一个合计的分数，用来代表整个可持续性发展目标的表现。值得注意的是，社会测量指数可以衡量生活品质。我们要观察的并非是在地球的环境限制之内是否能达成目标，这些需要其他的工具才能做到。

02:33
So how are we doing on the SDGs? Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100. And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators: absolute social progress, zero. And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs. A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030. So, where did we start on this journey? Fortunately, not at zero. In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1. Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.
那么在可持续性发展目标上我们做得如何呢？我们可以把可持续性发展目标放到0到100的尺度上来看。 0分表示这所有 51 个指标处于最糟糕的情况：绝对的社会进展，0分。 100分是要达到的可持续性发展目标的最低标准。我们希望能够在 2030 年达到100分。那么这趟旅程我们究竟是从何开始的？幸运的是，不是从零开始。在 2015 年，全世界的可持续发展目标分数是 69.1。这表明，我们已经在向着目标前进，但还有很长的路要走。

03:10
Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast, which is based on data from 180 countries, is population weighted. So China has more weight in than Comoros; India has more weight in than Iceland. But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing. And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark. And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic. And everyone else is somewhere in between. So the challenge for the SDGs is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030. Can we get there? Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data. So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on, on which we can build some projections.
我还要强调一下，这只是世界范围的预测，是基于 180 个国家现有的数据，以人口数作为加权。所以，中国的权重比科摩罗要高；印度的权重比冰岛要高。但是我们可以将数据进行分解，看看各个国家的表现。目前，最接近达成目标的国家是丹麦。最前路漫漫的国家是中非共和国。其余的国家都处于它们之间。所以，可持续性发展目标的挑战就是要试着在 2030 年之前把所有的点全部扫到最右的一百分。我们能做到吗？针对社会进步指数，我们有一些时间序列的资料。所以我们能多少了解一点国家的趋势，可以再通过趋势来做预测。

03:58
So let's have a look. Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark. And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win. Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world -- the G7. And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts. But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short. And the United States? Quite some way back. Now, this is sort of worrying news. But these are the richest countries in the world, not the most populous. So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world, the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
那么我们来看看吧。我们先从表现最好的国家丹麦开始。是的，我很高兴的预测，丹麦能在 2030 年实现可持续性发展目标。或许不出所料，但是至少先打赢一场。我们再来看看世界上的其他较富有的国家—— 西方七大工业国 (G7)。我们发现德国和日本会达到，或至少很接近目标。但是加拿大，法国，英国和意大利都还有一定差距。那么美国呢？还要再差一截。这是个有些让人担忧的消息。但是这些是世界上最富有的国家，并不是人口最多的。现在让我们来看看世界上最大的那些国家，那些会直接影响到我们能否实现可持续性发展目标的国家。

04:45
And here they are -- countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million, ranging from China to Ethiopia. Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list, but we've looked at them already. So here we are. The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs. And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs is Mexico. Mexico is going to get to about 87, so just shy of where the US is going to get but quite some way off our SDG target. Russia comes next. Then China and Indonesia. Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better. Philippines, and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and then Ethiopia. So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs. And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world to give ourselves a world forecast on achieving that total package of the SDGs. So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1. I'm pleased to say that over the last three years, we have made some progress. In 2018, we've hit 70.5, and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030, that's going to get us to 75.2, which is obviously a long way short of our target. Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094. Now, I don't know about you, but I certainly don't want to wait that long.
就是这些—— 世界上人口超过一亿的国家，从中国到埃塞俄比亚。显然，美国和日本应该也在列表上，但是我们已经看过它们，就不重复了。那么问题就是，世界上最大的国家是能否达成可持续性发展目标的关键。而将会在可持续性发展目标上取得巨大进展的国家是墨西哥。墨西哥大概会达到 87 分，只是略低于美国会达到的目标，但距离我们最终的可持续性目标还差不少。接下来是俄罗斯，紧接着是中国和印度尼西亚。然后是巴西—— 本来预期巴西会比这个更好。菲律宾，然后下面是印度，孟加拉，巴基斯坦，尼日利亚，以及埃塞俄比亚。可见，这些国家通通都无法达到可持续性发展目标。接着我们可以拿全世界所有国家的数据来做一个世界性的预测，预测可持续性发展目标的实现情况。别忘了，在 2015 年，我们是从 69.1 分起步的。我很高兴地说，在过去的三年里，我们还是取得了一些喜人的进展。在 2018 年，我们达到了 70.5 分，如果我们按照这样的趋势推算到 2030 年，我们将会达到 75.2分，显然离我们预期的目标还相差甚远。的确，依照目前的趋势，我们要到 2094 年才能实现同样的目标。我不确定你们怎么想，但是我肯定不想等那么久。

06:18
So what can we do about this? Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries. Here are the countries closest to the SDGs, with the greatest resources, and they're falling short. Maybe they think that this is like the Old World where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them. Well, you're wrong. The SDGs are for every country, and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short. Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs and deliver them for their citizens. G7, other rich countries -- get your act together.
那么我们该怎么办呢？首先我们要做的就是呼吁这些富有的国家采取行动。它们是最接近可持续性发展目标的国家，有着丰富的资源，但却没能达到目标。也许它们认为这就像是旧世界里，联合国的目标只是为了贫穷的国家制定的，而不是为了它们。那你们就大错特错了。可持续性发展目标是为每一个国家制定的。这些没能实现目标的富有国家应该感到羞愧。每一个国家都需要制定一个计划来实施这一目标，并为它们的公民们去达成这个目标。七大工业国，以及其他富有的国家—— 要积极行动起来。

06:53
The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress or there are negative trends that we can reverse. So I'm going to take you into three areas. One where we're doing quite well, one where we really should be doing better and another where we've got some real problems.
我们能做的第二件事，就是在看资料的时候更深入思考，看看哪里有机会可以让进展更快，或者哪里有机会让我们逆转负面的趋势。我们可以从三个方面来思考。一方面是我们都做得很好的地方，一方面是还需要提升的地方，还有另一方面是我们有问题需要解决的地方。

07:13
Let's start with the good news, and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care. This covers SDG 2 on no hunger and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health, so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ... This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs. And we also find, looking at our big countries, that the most advanced have got pretty close. Here are our 11 big countries, and if you look at the top, Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target. But at the bottom -- Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go. That's where we are in 2018. What's our trajectory? On the current trajectory, how far are we going to get by 2030? Well, let's have a look.

我们先从好消息开始，我想要谈的是所谓的食物和基本的医疗服务。这就包含了关于结束饥饿的可持续性发展目标二，及关于健康的目标三中的基本条款，包括母亲和儿童的死亡率，感染性疾病等等。在这一方面，世界上大部分富有的国家都达到了目标。从这些富有国家中，我们也发现，最先进的国家最先达到目标。这是我们的前 11 个大国，如果你看最上面的几个国家，巴西和俄罗斯，它们都很接近目标。但在最底部—— 埃塞俄比亚，巴基斯坦—— 还有很长的路要走。这就是截至到 2018 年的情况。那么我们的发展轨迹又如何呢？若依照目前的轨迹，到2030 年，我们还能走多远？我们一起来看看。

Well, what we see is a lot of progress. See Bangladesh in the middle. If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress, it could get very close to that SDG target. And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress at the moment. If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way. We add this all up for all the countries of the world and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030. And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly, could accelerate progress, then we could get a lot closer.
很多国家都进展喜人。看一下中间的孟加拉国。如果孟加拉国维持目前的进展，它可能会非常接近可持续性发展目标。而最下方的埃塞俄比亚目前也有大幅度的进展。如果保持这个势头，埃塞俄比亚能够走得很远。把全世界所有国家的数字加起来，我们预测到 2030 年，我们将会达到 94.5 分。如果像菲律宾这类成长较慢的国家能够加速进展，那么我们就会更接近目标。

So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3. But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well, which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation. Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries have already achieved the targets. And again, for our big countries -- our big 11 emerging countries, we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico, are very close to the target, but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back. So how are we doing on this target? What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years based on the current direction of travel? Well, here we go ...
所以，我们对可持续性发展目标二和三可以抱持积极的态度。但是该目标的另一方面我们就没能做得很好，那就是目标六，关于水资源和卫生系统。同样地，这也是大部分富有国家已经实现的目标。同时，对于大国家来说—— 我们 11 个新兴的国家，可以看到其中有一些，如俄罗斯和墨西哥，都非常接近目标。但是尼日利亚和其他国家却还是相差甚远。那么在这些目标上我们做得如何？根据目前的进展方向，在接下来的 12 年里我们需要实现怎样的进展？好，让我们来看看……

and yes, there is some progress. Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets -- some are moving forward quite quickly. But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly. What we see is that for the world as a whole, we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 -- not fast enough.
是的，就是这些进展。排名前四的国家将实现可持续性发展目标—— 有些国家前进的速度非常快。但这还不足以让我们有显著的进步。就整个世界而言，我们预测到 2030 年前，我们的分数会在 85 到 86 分左右—— 还不够快。

09:31
Now, obviously this is not good news, but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better. Water and sanitation is a solved problem. It's about scaling that solution everywhere. So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries who are improving more slowly -- Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. -- then we could get a lot closer to the goal. Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity of all the SDGs for a step change.
显然这不是一个好消息，但我认为这些数据也意味着我们在很多地方还能做得更好。水和卫生是我们有待解决的问题。重点是我们要把解决方案扩展到各个地方，如果我们能够提高这些成长缓慢的国家进展的速度—— 比如尼日利亚，菲律宾等等—— 这样我们就能够更加接近目标。的确，我认为在所有可持续性发展目标中，达成目标六的机会最大。

10:01
So that's an area we could do better. Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling, which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness. This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs. SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality, SDG 10 on inequality, SDG 11 on inclusive cities and SDG 16 on peace and justice. So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness, and those may seem less immediate or pressing than things like hunger and disease, but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind. So how are we doing on those issues?
所以说，在这个方面我们可以做得更好。最后再来看看让我们举步维艰的方面，其中就包括所谓的人权以及包容性。其中囊括了可持续性发展目标中的不少概念。目标一中的贫穷，目标五中的性别平等，目标十中的不平等，目标十一中的包容性城市，以及目标十六中的和平与公正。所以，以上目标中的主题都与权力和包容性有关，与饥饿和疾病相比，它们或许显得没有那么紧急或迫切，但是如果要做到不让人落后于时代，权力和包容就变得至关重要。那么我们该怎样对待这些问题呢？

Let's start off with personal rights. What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015. So here they are, and I've put the USA and Japan back in, so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world. And we see a wide range of scores.
让我们从个人权利谈起。我要先向大家介绍下 2015 年的大国有哪些。就是这些，我又把美国和日本重新放了进来，所以，在全世界我们有 13 个大国。我们看到的分数差距很大。

11:24
Let's have a look now at inclusiveness. And inclusiveness is looking at things like violence and discrimination against minorities, gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc... And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower. Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling with building an inclusive society. But what's our direction of travel? Are we building more inclusive countries? Let's have a look -- progress to 2018. And again we see the world moving backwards: most countries static, a lot of countries going backwards -- Bangladesh moving backwards -- but also, two of the countries that were leading -- Brazil and the United States -- have gone backwards significantly over the last three years.
现在我们来看看包容性。包容性要关注的方面有针对少数群体的暴力和歧视、性别平等、同性恋包容性等。那么我们可以看到人口大国的分数基本上都很低。每个国家，无论贫穷还是富有，在建立一个包容的社会上都有着各自的挣扎。但我们的发展方向又是什么？我们在打造更多具有包容性的国家吗？让我们看看截至 2018 年的进展。同样，我们看到世界在倒退：大部分的国家在原地踏步，很多国家还在倒退—— 孟加拉国在倒退—— 但其中有两个国家首当其中—— 巴西和美国—— 在过去三年里，它们倒退的情况最严重。

12:07
Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole. And what we see on personal rights for the whole world is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights to about 60, and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42. Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes, but we have to accept that on current trends, this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs. How I've depressed you ...
现在，让我们以全球的视角来做个总结。就全世界的个人权利来说，我们预测个人权利的分数会下降到大概 60 分，包容性的分数将会下降到 42 分。显然，随着国家的权力和法律的改变，以及人民大众态度的调整，这些都有可能很快改变，但我们要接受这样一个事实，依照目前的趋势，这可能是可持续性发展目标中最令人担忧的一方面了。听到这儿，各位是不是觉得很失望……

12:40
I hope not because I think what we do see is that progress is happening in a lot of places and there are opportunities for accelerating progress. We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea. If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources, galvanize the political will, that step change is possible.
我希望没有，因为我认为我们所看到的是在很多地方能够看见的进展，有很多机会能够加速这些进展。我们如今所生活的世界正在努力减少因饥饿、疟疾或腹泻而死的人口数量。如果我们能够全力以赴，充分调动资源，刺激政治意愿，那么改变就有可能发生。

13:07
But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs, we mustn't forget the whole package. The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets, but they also include the challenges our world faces. The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness is a positive. If we forget that, if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve, if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs, then we will have missed the point of the SDGs, we will miss the goals and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs.
但当我们关注于那些非常基本的、可解决的可持续性发展目标时，我们也不能忘了顾全大局。这些目标是非常大的一组指标和目标，但它们也包括了这个世界正面临的挑战。可持续性发展目标关注于我们所面临的人权和包容性危机，这是一件好事。如果我们忘了这点，选择在我们能解决的可持续性发展目标上加倍投注，如果我们把各项目标拆开来寻找最容易解决的部分，那么我们的可持续性发展目标就失去了意义，我们也将错失目标，无法完成对于该目标的承诺。