来自扑克冠军关于做决定的三个策略 – Liv Boeree

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来自扑克冠军关于做决定的三个策略 - Liv Boeree

手法好还是运气好？在做重要决定时，我们是应该相信自己的直觉呢，还是应该相信概率和缜密的分析？在这篇简短的演讲中，职业扑克玩家丽芙 · 波利分享了她从游戏中学到的三种策略，以及我们可以如何将它们应用到现实生活中。

00:00
So I'm a professional poker player, and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.
我是一名专业扑克玩家，今天，我想谈一谈牌局教给我的可以应用于日常决策的三个决策。

00:13
Now the first of these things is about luck. Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck, and when it comes to the biggest things we care about -- health, wealth and relationships -- these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making, but also the roll of life's dice. For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious and still get unlucky with something like cancer. Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age, and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know how good our strategies are, sometimes, especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.
第一个就是运气。生活就像扑克游戏，需要技巧和运气，当面对我们最关心的事情—— 健康，财富，和人际关系—— 其结果都不只跟我们做决定的质量有关，也取决于生活中的运气。例如，我们在非常注重健康的情况下，也仍然会不幸患上癌症。或者一天抽20只烟，也能同样活到99，这种模糊性有时候让我们很难判断我们的策略究竟有多好，尤其在经历了多次成功之后。

00:51
For example, back in 2010, I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour. And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year, when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant. In fact, I thought I was so brilliant that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game, but I also got more risky, started playing in the biggest tournaments I could against the very best in the world. And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty to something kind of sad, with this worrying downhill trend for a long time, until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level, and got my act together.
比如说，在2010年时，我赢得了一场真正意义上的扑克锦标赛，欧洲扑克巡回赛。再加上我当时仅仅全职玩了一年的扑克，获胜之后，我觉得我一定非常聪明。事实上，我觉得自己已经如此聪明了，所以不仅懒得去钻研游戏，还开始变得喜欢冒险，开始参加我能参加的最大的比赛，与最强大的对手对决。然后我的利润图表从让人赏心悦目，变得有些惨不忍睹，并且这种令人担忧的下行趋势持续了很长时间，直到我最终意识到，我高估了自己的水平，并开始重振旗鼓。

01:30
And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017, where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves is the number of "senior investment specialists" who have been appearing out of nowhere. Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge, but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius when you're in a market that's going up so fast that even the worst strategies are making a profit. So when we're experiencing success, it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves how much of it is truly down to us, because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.
这让我回想起了在加密货币领域的见闻，至少在2017年，唯一比市场本身上升还快的就是不知道从哪里冒出来的 “高级投资专家”的数量。我不是说不可能有战略优势，但与此同时，当你在一个快速上升的市场中，即便操着最烂的策略也能赚钱时，是非常容易感觉自己天赋异禀的。所以当我们在经历成功时，应该花点时间扪心自问，这次成功中有多少因素真正取决于我们的能力，因为当我们获胜时，我们的自负感会倾向于淡化运气成分。

02:09
Now, a second thing poker taught me is the importance of quantifying my thinking. When you're playing, you can't just get away with going, "Eh, they're probably bluffing." That's just going to lose you a bunch of money, because poker is a game of probabilities and precision, and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers. So now, whenever I catch myself thinking vaguely about something really important, like, "It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk," I now try to estimate it numerically.
第二件扑克教给我的事，是量化自己想法的重要性。当你在牌局上时，不可能就这样想着， “呃，他们可能是在虚张声势。” 这只会让你输很多钱，因为扑克是个关于概率和精确性的游戏，所以你必须训练自己用数字思考。所以现在，每当我发现自己在粗略地思考一些非常重要的事情时，比如 “我大概不会在TED演讲时忘记自己想要讲什么，” 我现在会尝试用数字估算它。

02:41
Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process. And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today, or at any point in the future, can also be expressed as a probability, too.
相信我，这真的对计划过程有很大的帮助。事实上，什么事情都有可能在今天或在未来某个时候发生，也可以被表达为概率。

02:55
So now I also try to speak in numbers as well. So if someone asks me, "Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?" instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably," I actually give them my best estimate -- say, 60 percent. Because -- I know that sounds a little odd -- but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter of what people understand the word "probably" to mean, and this was the spread of answers. Enormous! So apparently, it's absolutely useless at actually conveying any real information.
我也会尝试把数据用到对话中。如果有人问我， “嗨，丽芙，你今晚会参加么？” 与其用“可能吧”这样的方式回复他们，我会给他们我最好的估计值—— 比如，六成。虽然——我知道这听着奇怪—— 但关键在于，我在推特上对人们如何理解“可能吧”这句话做了个调研，这是答案的分布情况。十分广泛！很明显，在传达任何重要的信息时，这个表达是完全没用的。

03:24
So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words, like "probably" or "sometimes," try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers, we know what lands in the other person's brain.
所以如果你们抓到自己在用像“大概”或者“有时候”的模糊词语时，尝试让自己用数字，因为我们用数字说话时，我们知道对方会如何理解。

03:38
Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition. How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes in your Facebook feed?
今天我要讲的第三点，是直觉。多少人在Facebook上看到过那些心灵鸡汤的图片？

03:49
[Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]
【始终相信你的直觉，不要怀疑自己。】

03:51
They're nice, right? It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul." Well, they're terrible advice. These are some of the best poker players in the world right now. Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?
挺正能量的，对吧？真的挺不错的。没错，”相信你的灵魂。“ 只不过它们都是差劲的建议。这些是世界上最厉害的扑克玩家。他们看着像是完全活在自己的感觉和直觉里的人吗？

04:08
Look at them! Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis, and that's because the game has outgrown the days where pure street smarts and people-reading can get you to the top. And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect as we'd like to believe. I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot, to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration. But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.
看看他们！很明显，这些人凭借的是缓慢，缜密的分析，因为现在的牌局已经不像当年，靠着纯粹的草根智慧和看人能力就能让你到达顶峰。这是因为我们的直觉并没有我们想象中的那么完美。当然了，如果每次深陷难处之时，都能灵光一现，让问题迎刃而解，那就再好不过了。但现实中，我们的直觉极容易受到一厢情愿的想法和偏见的影响。

04:40
So then, what is our gut good for? Well, all the studies I've read conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things that we have lots and lots of experience in, like how we just know that our friend is mad at us before we've even said anything to them, or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot. But when it comes to the really big stuff, like what's our career path going to be or who should we marry, why should we assume that our intuitions are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis? I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.
那么，我们的直觉究竟擅长什么呢？在我看过的所有研究中，都总结出了直觉最适合于那些我们有丰富经验的事情上，比如我们在跟朋友沟通前，就知道他们在生我们的气，或者我们能不能把车停到一个非常小的车位上。但在做重大决定时，比如我们的职业规划或挑选结婚对象时，我们为什么要相信直觉会比慢节奏，适当的分析更适合处理这些问题呢？我意思是，直觉没有任何数据来支撑。

05:16
So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions, we shouldn't overprivilege them either. And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today with my own set of memes, with more of a poker-player twist.
所以我学到的第三件事就是：我们不应该忽视我们的直觉，但也不应该过分重视它们。我现在想要从一名扑克玩家的角度来总结一下这三个经验。

05:29
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."
“通过大样本量获得的成功才是最甜美的。”

05:35
"Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
”直觉是你的朋友，成本效益分析也同样。”

05:41
"The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."
”未来是未知的，但是你可以努力的尝试并且评估它。“